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Read online Il segnale e il rumore. Arte e scienza della previsione.pdf PDF, EPUB, MOBI, TXT, DOC Il segnale e il rumore. Arte e scienza della previsione Fare previsioni non affatto semplice Anche se la mole di informazioni disponibili aumenta a ritmo vertiginoso la quantit di verit e segnali utili alla nostra conoscenza del mondo non tiene lo stesso passo La maggior parte solo interferenza e il rumore sta crescendo molto pi che il segnale Nate Silver statistico uno dei pensatori pi originali dell ultima generazione affronta un tema centrale nella vita di tutti poter basare le proprie scelte su previsioni che si riveleranno affidabili nel tempo con uno stile brillante trasformando anche le questioni pi teoriche in qualcosa di divertente interessante e necessario Dalla politica all economia passando per i tanti campi di applicazione della statistica nella vita quotidiana dal poker alla meteorologia dai terremoti al gioco degli scacchi fino alla possibilit di scoprire il tradimento di un partner ritrovando un indumento sospetto in giro per casa Dopo aver letto Il Segnale e il Rumore imparerete a prestare attenzione alle previsioni del meteo per i giorni seguenti ma a diffidare da quelle che vanno oltre la settimana Darete un peso diverso ai sondaggi politici e a come investite il denaro in borsa Capirete che non possibile prevedere quando ci sar il prossimo devastante terremoto ma che potreste mettervi in salvo in caso di uragano Silver osserva che a dispetto del sensazionalismodei media una previsione accurata richiede un misto di umilt e lavoro duro Pi si dichiara il margine di incertezza pi ci si avvicina alla verit E ci ricorda che l elemento umano ancora essenziale nelle previsioni e nel progresso delle scienze dellatecnologia dell economia e della politica I dati da soli non bastano by Nate Silver

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Il segnale e il rumore. Arte e scienza della previsione
Title:Il segnale e il rumore. Arte e scienza della previsione
Format Type:eBook PDF / e-Pub
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Category:Non fiction, Science, Business, Economics, Politics, Psychology
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The Best American Infographics 2014, The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail - But Some Don't, Baseball Between the Numbers: Why Everything You Know About the Game is Wrong, The Best American Infographics 2015, Baseball Prospectus 2009: The Essential Guide to the 2009 Baseball Season, The Importance of Ideas: 16 thoughts to get you thinking (Guardian Shorts)
No description available, Elephants in Europe heroes the end of neoliberalism the ebook before you is unlike any other Within its virtual pages you will find a plethora of provoking ideas from thinkers scientists writers and comedians In their short contributions authors as diverse as Nate Silver and Naomi Wolf Michael Pollan and Polly Morland offer their thoughts on everything from Big Data to big appetites br br Ideas new unexpected creative counter intuitive and reflective are an irresistible source of joy They get the grey matter turning over they can inform and inspire prompt us to change our minds or discover why we disagree with something Without ideas life is drab and flat With a new flow of ideas it is vibrant and exciting The sixteen ideas contained within this ebook will both take you to new subjects and invite you to look afresh at ones you know well br br Drawn from the some of the most popular speakers at the Bristol Festival of Ideas and introduced and edited by the Festival s director Andrew Kelly The Importance of Ideas is an utterly original assortment of thoughts to make you think br br The full list of contributors in alphabetical order Katharine Baldock Sanjay Basu Bidisha Robin Ince Tony Juniper Sunder Katwala Sara Maitland Jane Memmott George Monbiot Polly Morland Geoff Mulgan Michael Pollan Lord David Sainsbury Michael Sandel Nate Silver Andrew Solomon David Stuckler Naomi Wolf, Praise for i The Best American Infographics i br br Represent s the full spectrum of the genre from authoritative to playful i Scientific American i br br Not only is it a thing of beauty it s also a good read with thoughtful explanations of each winning graphic i Nature i br br Information in its raw form can overwhelm us Finding the visual form of data can simplify this deluge into pearls of understanding Kim Rees Periscopic br br b The most creative and effective data visualizations from the past year edited by i Brain Pickings i creator Maria Popova b br br The rise of infographics across nearly all print and electronic media from a graphic illuminating the tweets of the women of Isis to a memorable depiction of the national geography of beer reveals patterns in our lives and the world in often startling ways i The Best American Infographics i showcases visualizations from the worlds of politics social issues health sports arts and culture and more From an elegant graphic comparison of first sentences in classic novels to a startling illustration of the world s deadliest animals You ll come away with more than your share of mind bending moments and a wide ranging view of what infographics can do i Harvard Business Review i br This is what information design does at its best it gives pause makes visible the unsuspected yet significant invisibilia of life and by astonishing us into mobilization it catapults us toward one of the greatest feats of human courage the act of changing one s mind from the Introduction by Maria Popova br br Guest introducer MARIA POPOVA is the one woman curation machine behind i Brain Pickings i a cross disciplinary blog showcasing content that makes people smarter She has more than half a million monthly readers and over Twitter followers Popova is an MIT Futures of Entertainment Fellow and has written for the i New York Times i i Atlantic i i Wired UK i i GOOD i i Magazine i i The Huffington Post i and the Nieman Journalism Lab br br Series editor GARETH COOK is a Pulitzer Prize winning journalist a contributor to the i New York Times Magazine i and the editor of i Mind Matters Scientific American i s neuroscience blog He helped invent the i Boston Globe i s Sunday Ideas section and served as its editor from to His work has also appeared in NewYorker com i WIRED Scientific American i and i The Best American Science and Nature Writing i br br br br, Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance predicted the election within a hair s breadth and became a national sensation as a blogger all by the time he was thirty i The New York Times i now publishes i FiveThirtyEight com i where Silver is one of the nation s most influential political forecasters br br Drawing on his own groundbreaking work Silver examines the world of prediction investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data Most predictions fail often at great cost to society because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones But overconfidence is often the reason for failure If our appreciation of uncertainty improves our predictions can get better too This is the prediction paradox The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions the more successful we can be in planning for the future br br In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas from hurricanes to baseball from the poker table to the stock market from Capitol Hill to the NBA He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share What lies behind their success Are they good or just lucky What patterns have they unraveled And are their forecasts really right He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions And sometimes it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition In other cases prediction is still a very rudimentary and dangerous science br br Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability and they tend to be both humble and hardworking They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth Because of their appreciation of probability they can distinguish the signal from the noise br br With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions Nate Silver s insights are an essential read